Punish, don’t plan

January 2nd, 2013 Shabana Azmi wants certainty of punishment…someone wants the rapists to be chemically castrated… someone else wants capital punishment…While the 23-year old girl is dead, the political, social and media fights (for the best bite) are still on. And of course, there are the Abhijeet Mukherjees…
While there are no quick-fix solutions, I feel capital punishment is the answer. Anyone who has committed a rape should pay. And I really don’t care about the arguments that say that we should educate, make them realise their mistake and so on and so forth. The worst excuse is… Since, they have seen such things happen in their families… they are dysfunctional… and so on…
And I hate words like ‘sensitise’. What the hell is that? Sorry guys, a rape is a rape. There is no time to change the society.
It’s not that only the uneducated do it, even the educated do it. How much education does one need to understand that when you are forcing yourself on someone and that person is in pain, there is something wrong with it? Not much, I would assume. If any person is blind to this pain, then he/she/it should be made to go through it or simply hanged.
Start with the basics. If there is a first instance of eve-teasing, jail the guy for 7-30 days (depending on the extent of the crime). And, if there is a second instance, jail them for one year or more. Put their pictures in local papers, college gates and railway stations.
Once we start treating eve-teasers as criminals, we will start the process. But yes, to ensure that the law is not misused, there has to be proper investigation with evidence. The idea is to have strong deterrents. Fear is the key.
For the social activists who want them saved and educated, there is a solution. Create an island like Guatemala Bay or India’s own kala pani during British times, which will house rapists from all over India. The activists can always go and teach them in these special zones.
And can we stop this “Nirbhaya, Damini” nonsense?

Less than a crore is so ‘LS’

October 18th, 2012 Indians have always been extremely conscious about social standing. It began with caste, graduated to class and now, finds expression in the euphemism of ‘status’.
Art imitates life and the best reflection of the Indian obsession with status is seen in cinema. The rich girl who falls in love with the poor guy or vice versa is always told “apne khandaan ke izzat ke bare mein socha hota (you should have thought of your family’s status).” Or, “iski aukaat kya hain (what’s his standing?)” – so LS (low standard).
Anyway, the good part is that the fathers/brothers/uncles in most Indian movies have a change of heart and support the marriage in the end.
Sometimes, even the guy/girl becomes immensely rich/Miss World in minutes to become acceptable.
But this consciousness about status is not just limited to marriage, it extends to ordinary life too. A person with a supposedly high status involved in a petty crime is denounced as “chuha maarke haath ganda kiya (dirtied hands killing a mouse)” – so LS.
In many other countries, society does not look at the status of the offender. So punishments are doled out in the US to celebrities or politicians, according to the crime, which could be community service or even jail.
A Britney Spears and Lindsay Lohan have done community service, Martha Stewart served a jail term. Recently, Scout Willis (daughter of Demi Moore and Bruce Willis) was given two days’ community service for public drinking and carrying a fake ID. Even politicians have not been spared.
US Senator John Ensign resigned for violating ethics by paying the family after having an affair. In India, people would snigger at such offences – so LS, many would say.
No wonder, Union Steel Minister Beni Prasad Verma’s comment on Monday that Cabinet colleague and Law Minister Salman Khurshid would not indulge in a scam for an amount as small as Rs 71 lakh does not come as a surprise – So LS…
And while Khurshid has filed a defamation suit against the publication, by trivialising the issue, his colleagues are not helping him at all. Someone should tell them — using another borrowed line — it’s not about money, honey.

Churn, don’t curtail consumption

August 30th, 2012 It’s an interesting thought floated by a friend over lunch. As usual, we were discussing how India is floundering on everything, primary due to the so-called policy paralysis.
Everyone agreed that the government needed to do something to change things, and fast. The thrust of the conversation was that while everyone keeps harping about global problems impacting India, there is little we have done to address our own problems. But, then, what can be done? – Most of us were speechless, as except blaming the government, there were no answers.
Then one of us said – the solution lies in churn. What… churn? – An interesting discussion followed thereafter. Here’s what we journalists call the edited excerpts.
The argument is simple. Say, someone is selling a shirt for Rs 100. The profit: Rs 20. If he reduces the price to Rs 85 and sells two, his profit will increase to Rs 30. But two people would have bought those shirts because the pricing was attractive to a wider audience.
Extending the logic to other sectors, say a builder’s margin is 30 per cent on a property priced at Rs 50 lakh. If the same property is sold Rs 40 lakh, he will attract more buyers.
Importantly, those buyers will take a smaller loan to buy the flat leaving more disposable cash of around Rs 8,000 – Rs 10,000 in this case, in their hands. This is likely to lead to consumption of other goods, say even a car. The rest follows…more expenditure means more requirement of goods and services…more production and so on.
In the economic parlance, it is referred to as increasing the velocity of money and transactions, as more people participate in a competitive market leading to the economic well-being of a larger section of society. To quote Aamir Khan from Three Idiots… more people should say ‘Aal Izzz Well’.
But, many companies or builders are unwilling to take a cut on their margins. And the approach of squeezing the maximum out of a few is hampering growth by keeping potential buyers out of the market.  No wonder, most consumers think even discount sales are gimmicks. Imagine buying jeans for Rs 5,000 in a ‘sale’.
Recently, Analjit Singh, non-executive chairman of Vodafone was explaining that the approach that governments abroad have is quite different. Globally, governments ask companies to focus to top line growth, bottom line growth will automatically take place – something, we don’t focus on aggressively.
How to increase the churn? –Finance Minister P Chidambaram seems to have taken the first step by asking banks (reportedly) to put pressure on builders to cut property rates to encourage buyers. This action needs to be extended to many other sectors.
The builder community is in deep trouble because they have been unable to sell flats and repay banks. And they are finding it hard to sell because they are holding on to prices through help from investors and refinancing from private equity players, venture capitals and even same banks (sometimes, at mind boggling rates of 30 per cent a year). So, instead of selling property, they are busy servicing debt.
Till recently, banks used to charge a prepayment penalty to retail borrowers if they shifted to another bank and ‘did not pay from their own funds’ – a practice both RBI and NHB have stopped now. Why can’t the same logic of ‘refinancing through own funds or a penalty’  extended to corporate India? This will put pressure on them to deliver.
Banks hold the key here. Aggression on their part will help the economy. It will even help improve their books. Who will bell the cat?

An open letter to the Little Master

May 22nd, 2012 Dear Mr Gavaskar,
Trust a Bengali to respond to you. But it’s almost funny that almost every cricket and news commentator, most less more qualified than you, lectures Saurav Ganguly. Some even pass snide remarks when he is on the field. ‘Oh, they are taking a second run because the ball has gone to him’ and so on.
Here is a counterpoint. Why are we watching PWI play a match at all or, for that matter, Rajasthan Royals? I have not seen anyone, and I mean real people not statisticians or commentators, who are gung-ho about a Punjab (and they are doing quite well in recent times) or Deccan. Simply, because there is no Dravid or Saurav leading those teams.
While Sachin, Viru, Dhoni and Gambhir automatically qualify for fame and support, I wonder how others teams will get the eyeballs if they don’t have talisman captains or players who attract people, even in their failures.
I would expect someone of your experience and expertise to realise that his presence for PWI is important for not just cricketing reasons (IPL is exactly not quality cricket).
But the argument cannot be that since Ganguly does not need to prove himself and he is doing badly, he should retire. Is there really a problem if he wants to prove himself? In the past, he has done so in adverse circumstances so maybe, he feels he has it in him still. And, that is why he is being watched.
I really wonder how many of his teams members have outperformed (him) in this season PWI or other seasons in KKR (would be interesting to compare Saurav’s numbers in Eden with Gautam’s. Is Gauti doing better?).
Unless he is being blamed him for match-fixing, I am sure others did not underperform because of him.
Why are we so charitable towards Sachin and in this season Dhoni, not Saurav or Dravid? Dravid quit after one bad series, will Sachin ever do that?
At the end of the day, we are what the Australians blame us for, record seekers. Age, fitness and form are important, which is why a Dravid (he is still the best number 3 for India even considering those parameters), Ganguly and Laxman, may not make it to the current Indian team.
But in IPL, you need someone who will make sure teams catch eyeballs. And sadly, even Michel Clarke or Ricky Ponting or Steve Smith will not get Pune Warriors that.
To put the wayward criticism in perspective, here is a headline of a leading paper. “ Pune Warriors is the first team to bow out from IPL” with a Ganguly’s picture on the front page panel (your column appeared in the same paper).
Here are the numbers on that day. PWI – 13 Matches, 8 points. Deccan Chargers – 12 Matches, 5 points. If both Deccan and PWI had won all their matches, it was not possible for Deccan to have gone ahead of Pune.
Two points: One, we have got into the habit of blaming Ganguly for everything. There is almost a sense of glee when he fails. By the same yardstick, Sachin’s star-studded Mumbai Indians (any of the teams Ganguly or even Dhoni has led does not boast of those names) have never won an IPL but we seldom lift a finger against him. And I am still to see if Gambhir can take KKR there.
Two, even a leading newspaper did not care about the real numbers but just said something they felt like.
Fact: Few would even watch a Pune match without his presence (even if to just criticise him, his batting, fielding, tactics and so on).
Maybe, the owners should think about getting someone who can grab those headlines in the next season. Even bad publicity is good.
In my view, Ganguly should walk out of Pune Warriors after May 19. (As a captain, he has a better record than other Indian captains and experts who are commenting about him. As a player, I wonder how many have been better than him in the one-day format. His test record or IPL records aren’t exactly condemnable.)
But then, he might just come back for more pain and bad press… who cares… people will still watch him… is it so bad?

When Citi was sleeping

January 4th, 2011 “Citi never sleeps” is the famous campaign of the bank. But then, it was sleeping like Kumbhakarna for almost a year.
If one were to go by news reports, a Citibank employee and his accomplices were investing monies – almost Rs 400 crore – of high net worth individuals through brokerage houses for a while now.
Corporate houses like the Hero group and 20-odd people invested in schemes which were sold to them by showing them forged letter of the market regulator, Sebi.
While the bank may argue that bigger scams have taken place all across the world, including India. But one would expect the bank of this size – another Kumbhakarna feature – to have better due diligence systems.
Aren’t there supposed to be quarterly audits, at least? How do they prepare their results otherwise?
It is slightly difficult to believe that there only one person involved. If the employee was issuing cheques on the behalf of a client, there had to be a second signature.
It is easy to understand that the clients were offered super normal returns (high returns at higher risks) and they fell for it. No wonder, they are cheated often because they do not understand the nuances of the product.
But can a bank, which is supposed to be specialising in these things, plead not guilty of the same? Can Rs 400-crore be diverted/ invested by one person without any scrutiny?
My fear is at a very basic level…

CWG over :) Let the games begin…

October 20th, 2010 October 14: Common Wealth Games (CWG) closing ceremony
October 15: Prime Minister felicitates CWG Winners. (Suresh Kalmadi reportedly ignored)
October 16: Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandi meet CWG Winners. (Suresh Kalmadi reportedly ignored)
October 16: Sheila Dikshit: The “real corruption seems to be with regard to the money given as loans to the Organising Committee (OC)”.
October 17: Suresh Kalmadi: The OC cannot be made ’scapegoats any more.’ Shiela Dikshit’s aspersions on corruption in the OC were “most disappointing and uncalled for” and that she must indulge in self-reflection on corruption in her own departments. Keeping quiet should not be interpreted as a “sign of weakness”.
In an interview to a television channel … Mr Kalmadi: The prime minister’s office invited me for the felicitation.
CAG, IT- departments probes initiated. Reports suggest that CWG scam worth Rs 8,000 crore.

The CWG hangover is barely over. But both newspapers and television channels are having a ball with all the related ‘breaking news’.
Saina Nehwal, who won that famous last-minute goal medal, to take India ahead of Britain has been relegated back to the sports page. The other winners share the same fate. Instead, we have a bunch of people (read politicians) who are hogging the limelight. As usual, for all the wrong reasons.
But what interests me is something else. Let’s assume that it is proved that there was an Rs 8,000 crore scam, what happens then?
Will the money be recovered, even some part of it, and paid back to the government?
Then, the bigger question: How will the government use this windfall?
Will it be used to bring down the fiscal deficit (even if, marginally)? At least, some international agency will improve our sovereign rating. Or,
Will there be another programme for the poor? At least, 25 per cent should reach them. Or,
Will the taxpayer, whose money was shamelessly wasted, be given some relief?
None, I feel.
At best, we will just identify the culprits and initiate a few more probes.
Let the games begin

CWG: Playing with our money

August 10th, 2010 Kalmadi, Darbari… and whoever else is managing the Commonwealth Games is making… oops, has already made a mess of it. And success or failure of the event does not count.
Every debate on television channels only highlights our lack of preparation. The debate between Congress’s Manish Tewari, BJP’s Kirti Azad, Ashwini Nachappa and Sanjay Jha in CNN-IBN was quite disgusting.
The way Tewari and Azad were screaming at each other at the end of the show was pretty cheap. In fact, the latter was quite controlled for most of the show before he lost it.
But there is something quite funny about the Congress. When anything goes wrong, their spokespersons are quick to point out that it is the UPA government’s problem. I don’t know how they will react if something goes right.
Well, can’t blame them either. In the last one year, there haven’t had many reasons to celebrate. Despite the 200-plus seats and 2,000-point salami by the Sensex on their victory, things aren’t too rosy.
Since then, only bad news has dominated. Naxal killings, railway accidents and Bhopal gas tragedy have taken up most headlines. On the economy front, things are not so good either. Inflation is up, so are interest rates and the Sensex’s stuck.
So money-making is no longer easy unless you are a crook. And the CWG mess proves it. Hiring treadmills at double to price, inflated costs on building stadiums… even toilet papers have not been spared. That too, for a series of sporting events in which we figure nowhere, internationally. And ‘Mahim ka Champions’ don’t count.
Yes, we are decent in a couple of them and have even won Olympic medals. But in most others, we are laggards.
And the blame lies with organisers, not sports persons. All the sports associations are manned by people who have no knowledge of the game. It’s not good enough to “have played basketball in college” or ‘following World Cup Football on television’.
Anyway, am I paying for this nonsense? Yeah!
But I don’t remember paying a cess. Like there was an education cess, why wasn’t a CWG cess introduced? At least, I would have known that I am being officially looted.

Salaam Sourav!

March 23rd, 2010 I am 38. And like most Bengalis of my age, lack sporting icons. When my uncle keeps on harping about Pankaj Roy’s record opening partnership, I barely bat an eyelid.
Maybe, it is tragic but it is true. In the last one-and-a-half decade, Bengal has not produced a sportsman worth talking about. In my school days, football used to be the big thing. I briefly remember Manoranjan Bhattacharya, Bidesh Bose and Shyam Thapa playing in Patna (my hometown) in the late eighties.
Intellectuals, I really wouldn’t know. But I have not heard about them definitely. Moviemakers, again I do not know but… The only other sphere I think they have done reasonably well is music, mostly playback singers – Kishore Kumar, Abhijeet and Shaan, Sreya, more recently. And of course, journalism.
No wonder, I have followed Sourav career quite fondly, and at times, with complete despair – like now.
When Sourav’s made his grand Test match debut in England, I had just bought my first television. The next match, he scored another one. And whether I admit it or not, I have watched or, at least try to keep tabs on his career over the years.
And it has been one roller coaster drive. Not because he was mercurial, by performance or attitude (you don’t make 18,000 plus runs in both tests and one days by being one), but because he did things his way. So people, including selectors and oppositions, hated him or loved him. With Sourav, it has always been white or black, never a shade of grey.
When he was dropped by Greg Chappel, there was a furore. The comeback trail was equally dramatic. Yes, he has made his mistakes over the 15 plus years. But as they say, it is a part of the game.
Unfortunately, these last three years in IPL have been a torture. While Sachin, Dravid and even Kumble have managed to hold their own, Sourav has clearly been a disappointment. Of course, last year Buchnan queered the pitch with his ‘one-captain per match’ formula.
Even if one gives him the benefit of doubt, his performance has not been worth talking about. Things have simply gone downhill.
No, it is not to say that he is not capable of getting that sparkling 50 or 75 during the tournament. However, it does not matter. Somehow, even his greatest fan would know that. It’s time to step down gracefully. Anytime is right. And if possible, after a sparkling 50. The god of offside owes his fans one…

Agitation due to vegetation

February 17th, 2010 I am not a sociologist. But few things are quite stark. Food and clothing, education and jobs (in that order) are main concerns for every society.
Whether it is a tribal in West Bengal and Orissa, the unemployed in Bihar and UP or even, an Ajmal Kasab in Pakistan, these simple needs drive people to crime, agitation and all forms of violence.
And proponents of ideologies use this deficiency in the society to their fullest. Without pointing at any particular party or terrorist outfits or even, religious fanatics (because all of them are to blame), over the years, it has been clear that a few people can gather thousands and lakhs around them by promising these few things.
Yes, many will argue that there are college students from affluent families who are indoctrinated at an early age. True, but the bitter truth is that I have seen a whole lot these ‘ideological students’ settling down in proper lives after college. (Come on guys, in most cases, it is not about a country’s independence)
In fact, one of my seniors was a part of the group that demolished Babri Masjid demolition. Today, he is happily settled as an information technology professional.
Many so-called communists of the 60s and 70s are happily working in capitalist organisations, quite a few even in business newspapers, magazines and television channels.
Governments, as a result, should primarily focus on the troika of food and clothing, education and jobs. Instead, we find politicians taking positions that they will use force to crush the agitation.
Sure, it may be crushed. But a next generation of poverty stricken and oppressed will always rise.
A small example is a place like Manali. In a recent visit, I discovered that even if one wishes to travel late evening (which is like later than 10 pm), there is little fear. Most people, though not so affluent, are working.
My car driver on the last day was an interesting chap. The 25-year old owned 8 cars, a few apple and other farms. But he was still driving his own car. Whenever I had to leave the car to make a purchase or see a location, he would assure me that none of my valuables would be stolen. And nothing was.
The satisfaction of a full stomach, decent clothing, some education and a job goes a long way in keeping people happy. Alas, our problem solving measures tend to concentrate on too many other things.

2009 – A year of defiance

January 12th, 2010 Last year, around this time, the mood was sombre. The fear of a complete catastrophe from the financial sector meltdown had chilled the minds of many. But well, with 100 per cent returns from equities, one cannot really complain that 2009 has been a bad year.
The ‘greenshoots’ , as the Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke likes to call them, have been many. Unemployment in the US, though not down, looks less scary. A lot of liquidity is sloshing around the world, helping companies to raise cash through initial public offerings, rights issues, private placements and so on. And all the stories that the world will slip into deeper recession sounds quite far fetched.
But I am not convinced that all is well. While bankers around the world are rejoicing that they have managed to arrest the recession by pumping liquidity and printing notes, there seems to be a hollow sound to it.
There is a lot of talk about how the trickle-down effect of the Wall Street has positively impacted the Main Street. The argument being that giving liquidity to bankrupt banks led to more lending. Saving jobs of overpaid bankers gave them confidence to take risks. And interestingly, most of the banks who took Federal aid have returned the money.
Yes all this is true. But there is a small catch. I don’t think that business confidence is too high. While raising cash might have become easier, I really wonder how much of it has been used to add capacities and generate jobs.
Most employers or corporations would like to sit on this cash till the confidence improves. And in the absence of employment generation, the cash that has been pumped in will have zero or no multiplier effect.
That is the reason, Lord Keynes advocated that in times of uncertainty, the government should generate employment by simply hiring people to dig holes and fill them. However, private corporations will look at parameters like return on capital to boost their balance sheets.
While Bernanke’s model is better than the one employed by the Fed in the 1930s recession (when it tightened the liquidity), I wonder if it is enough. Because unlike China or Japan, most US banks are not government-controlled. As a result, they are more worried about their balance sheets and more importantly, their bonuses.
As many reports have pointed out, bankers – ‘the problem children’ – continued to earn hefty bonuses while lesser people suffered, lost jobs and went bankrupt.
Yes, allowing the banks to fail may not have been the best solution. But there has to be some repentance. Otherwise, we will soon be heading for another bubble and recession.
In my view, at present, we may have deferred the some part of the pain. But pain, there will be, sooner or later. We, as individual stakeholders, should prepare ourselves with sound savings and insurance. And hope, the banks and insurance companies don’t fail us.

Dial ‘M’ for Money

November 16th, 2009 Television channels and newspaper reports claim that Madhu Koda (former chief minister of Jharkhand) has embezzled Rs 4,000 crore. Recent reports point out that transactions worth Rs 650 crore, a small portion of the money, took place in the Union Bank of India.
I am always bewildered by these numbers. How does one carry this amount to a bank or give it to someone? Even if they are all Rs 1,000 notes, that means 65,000 bundles – one would need at least a van or a tempo (small-sized truck) to carry it. Sure, it could have been done in tranches, but still.
So where did this cash come from? Better still, do people really keep Rs 1,000 crore in their houses or say in ‘godams’ (in hindi movies, especially in villages the zamindar has godams where he hoards all the food grains)?
And when needed he hires a tempo, loads all this cash, gives it to a politician or crook, who in turn, carries it to a bank (in the same or another tempo) and deposits it.
How long does it take the bank teller or the note counting machine to count it? To count even Rs 50-60 crores, it should take at least a few hours, as a single bundle is only Rs 1 lakh.
In smaller cities, branches may have to be closed because of the size of transaction.
Forgive my lack of experience. Being a middle-class person, the only time I have seen suitcases of cash is in the movies.
But it would be rather interesting to know how people hoard cash, carry it around, protect it from rodents (besides the law, of course) – what if one bundle is eaten by a rat (Imagine this sentence: Money hoarder: “chuha mere godam mein ek crore kha gaya or chuhon ne note kutar diye”)
And what happens to this money, once it has been captured. Ok, some part of it would go as awards to policemen or CBI officials. What happens to the rest? – Is black money a state subject or centre?
Questions, questions, questions… And I have no answers.

‘Sir’ – a much-abused word

October 8th, 2009 While growing up, the word ‘sir’ meant respect for elders, mostly teachers. Of course, it did not mean that we did not make fun of them in their absence… well, sometimes in their presence as well
But coming from a smaller town (Patna) and a family of school and college teachers, I almost grew up with the words ‘sir’ and ‘madam’. Student would come to our house every evening to, either study or learn music.
In fact, some people even called us ‘Ghosh madam ka beta’ or ‘Biplab sir ka bhanja’ (nephew).
But nowadays, the usage of the S word irks me quite often. And it is mainly due to telecallers from mobile, credit card, bank and ‘god-knows-what-else’ companies. Some of these callers have almost perfected the art of calling you ‘Sir’, even if they mean ‘Jerk’.
For instance, I want to settle a credit card bill for months now. So every time someone calls from this bank, I request them to send me a bill (which incidentally has not been send to me for over a year). Instead, they keep on tell me to pay a small amount (referred as ‘bucket amount’) and promise me to settle the bill next month.
The conversation goes something like this.
Me: “Kindly send me a complete bill. I am tired of paying these small interest amounts.”
He/she/… (from the call centre): “Definitely sir, but kindly pay Rs … and I promise that next month we will call you and settle this.
Me: “But you have been saying this for the last one year.”
He/she/… (from the call centre): “Sir, this time we will definitely do it.”
Me: “Sorry, I refuse to pay this small ‘bucket amounts’ every month.”
He/she/… (from the call centre): “Sir, your decision. But the interest will keep on mounting. Next month someone else will be on this case and I won’t be able to help you.
Technically speaking, while the call centre person is ‘Sir-ing’ me all this time, he/she/… is almost threatening me.
Some others use this word just to sell a product. Like, “Sir, we have this great offer or product.” And it is rather frustrating when the callers do not realise that a person may know more about some insurance or mutual fund product.
Typically, they try to sell a unit-linked insurance plan as a mutual fund. And conversations are like this… “No sir, you are not getting it. This is not an insurance plan, but a mutual fund.” – Yeah, and I am Salman Khan,
But the best ones are these. Recently, I got a missed call from a cell phone number. On returning the call, the person said, “Sir, I am from ****phone. We are offering you a free number.”
Me: “I never applied.” He/she/… (from the call centre): “Sir, it was a lucky draw.”
Me: “I don’t want it.” He/she/… (from the call centre): “Sir, it comes with a free gift.”
Me: “No, I don’t want it.” He/she/… (from the call centre): “Sir, our call charges are lowest, we will give you X plan. You will save Y money every month.
Me: “Ok, I will take it. He/she/… (from the call centre): Sir, what’s your name? …

Green shoots? I wonder…

August 26th, 2009 While the sharp upward movement in the stock markets would indicate that the worst is over, the numbers are not too convincing.
Analysts are clear in their view that better corporate numbers worldwide are more a function of reduced costs, rather than better performance.
As far as India goes, already drought has hit the country pretty badly. Consequently, agricultural production and gross domestic product will be hit. This means higher food prices, higher inflation, and ultimately, higher interest rates.
Worse still, a bad season means reduced purchasing power of rural India. Though the Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has expanded the scope of NREGA, it will at best ensure that the poor do not die because of lack of food.
So the lack of demand will continue to hit companies, which are dependent on rural India, to generate revenues.
In other words, salaries are not going to improve in a hurry cramping the working middle or upper middle class’s ability to make big buying decisions.
While builders are aggressively building and touting ‘affordable’ homes, the definition of affordability has changed – a flat costing Rs 25-40 lakh flat may sound affordable to many, especially after the heady days of Rs 1 crore flats even at the suburbs (well, it’s still like that in many places).
But going by a simple thumb rule, here are some interesting numbers. To get a loan of say Rs 30 lakh for 20 years, a person needs to have take-home salary of around Rs 60,000 – 80,000 per month – a gross salary of Rs 7-10 lakh.
I wonder how many people would be willing to risk this unless the deal is really good.
Also, while the job market is improving, it’s still not a free-for-all (no hiring to just have the numbers). Importantly, salary hikes are much more conservative, if at all. Buying a car or a second car will also be a tough decision.
Signals from the world economy are not great either. The US, in spite of some decent numbers, does not seem to be out of the woods. And China’s growth, many feel, is a bubble.
Not quite a bright picture. Of course, markets might turn around much before that. But it will be more liquidity driven and less due to economic fundamentals.
To me, it will be a while (perhaps more than a while) before things really turnaround. Till then, well, life goes on.

Duronto, Ijjot and now… Boget

July 6th, 2009 Budgets always invoke a lot of speculation. While a whole bunch of experts believe that it is a non-event, a lot of people keep themselves hooked on to the television. And then, the usual culprits come and demystify the numbers for ‘aam aadmi’.Here are some common features of every Budget.
The opposition will always say that the incumbent government could have done much more. Some like the Left even say that government is anti-poor and anti-labour. And that, even after the FM allocates some 50,000-60,000 crore for the poor.
The finance secretaries, who helped prepare the Budget, will come and defend it stoutly.
Then corporate honchos will give ratings. Seldom it’s very low.
The worst part – the poor FM has to give interview-after-interview to television channels. Given that the number of channels have increased manifold since the mid-nineties, I wonder how any FM gets the energy to speak to all of them.
In my view, the FM should call all of them in a single forum and let the editors shoot their questions. And let all channels telecast it at the same time.
For one, it will save the ‘aam aadmi’ from flicking through some 20 channels (all of them claim that they have an exclusive with the FM). More importantly, it will help the FM save some serious breathe because he has to answer the same questions to different editors.
Most importantly, since the crème de la crème editors land up to interview the FM, they will make sure that they do not repeat the same questions. The result – good quality questions from the best editors. And the best part – television watchers won’t have swollen fingers due to channel-flipping.
Coming back to the headline… Mamata didi brought the ‘Bengali flavour’ back to the Budget on Friday. After Lalu’s crude humour, it was back to ‘duronto’ and ‘Ijjot’.
Now I am waiting for Pronob da’s ‘Boget’ …

It’s Saina (not Sania)…

June 23rd, 2009 Disclaimer: Yes, I agree that Sania Mirza has done wonders for Indian Women’s Tennis.
But the comparison ends there.

I have a rather bad habit. Before going to sleep, I watch news. Sometimes, it’s a business channel (yuck to many), but mostly normal tamasha on news channels.
Yesterday, there was real tamasha. Some channels went quite gaga over Saina Nehwal’s super series win and Sania Mirza’s first round win in Wimbledon.
And while I am quite fine with the hoopla around Mirza, I am quite surprised with the lack of bandwidth for Nehwal.
In the last few years, Nehwal has consistently done well. Yet, for one tournament she was hassled for a visa (she rightly said that a cricketer wouldn’t have faced any hassles).
In fact, in this T-20 nonsense, I wonder if anyone even knew that Nehwal was quietly winning match-after-match.
In comparison, Mirza has to win one single match to be in the headlines. While I believe that Mirza has done wonders for Indian Women’s Tennis, but it’s simply as an ambassador. As a player, she has a long way to go.
At the age of 18-19, she had promise. At 22-23, she is still someone with promise. In singles, she hasn’t been in the quarter-finals of any of the Grand Slams.
But I guess tennis has more glamour than badminton. Everyone remembers Anna Kournikova…some, perhaps, even more than Chris Evert or Bille Jean King.
And someone may even argue that tennis is a more inclusive sport. Badminton is, after all, mostly an Asian sport. And the top ten have a lot of Chinese players and sometimes, a few Danish players.
For an Indian to break into the league is mighty impressive. If Nehwal’s coach is to be believed, she will be ranked sixth in the world after the recent win – in tennis, only
Ramanathan Krishnan was seeded fourth in the 1961 Wimbledon…
Sadly, talent and performance seldom gets reflected in television or newspaper coverage. Glamour, it would seem, works wonders.

Who is a non-performer?

May 14th, 2009 Nowadays, whenever companies sack their employees, the standard line is … “their performance was not in line with our parameters.” Or, something similar. While it may be true in some cases, that argument looks more than a bit stretched in most.
Let’s do a reality check. Not so long so, industry bodies were claiming that there’s still dearth of good talent. With companies in an expansion mode, hiring was frenzied. Head hunters would call executives aggressively. And in the event that a particular executive was uninterested, pat would be the reply, “Would any of your friends be interested?”
But things have turned for the worse. With recession plaguing the entire world, the demand for talent is no longer so great. In fact, companies need to cut flab.
And all that excess capacities built up in anticipation of future growth need to be pruned. So, quite a few employees have had to take the bitter ‘layoff’ pill.
But by branding the ‘laid-off’ employees as the worst performers is grossly unfair. If the company’s plans have gone haywire, it is not the employee’s fault. Instead of admitting this, many are harping about non-performance, stricter parameters and so on…
The fact being that no management wants to admit that their ambitious plans have gone wrong and in many cases, over-aggression has caused them grief.
Take the example of real estate companies – huge land banks were built by buying at astronomical prices. And that too in the latter half of 2007-08, when it was well known that the subprime crisis is looming large over the world.
Now that many of these projects are under hold indefinitely, can the employee who is being thrown out be called a non-performer?
In fact, the word ‘non-performance’ has almost become a joke. Sample this: Recently, when the two senior employees (CEO, COO types) left an organisation, a mail was sent to the corporate communications enquiring about the reason. The response was something like this… ‘individuals whose performance were not in line with the company’s parameters quit’.
It isn’t funny…

The twin trials of Madoff and Raju

March 24th, 2009 December 10, 2008 – Former Nasdaq chairman Bernard Madoff’s Ponzi scheme discovered by his sons and reported to federal authorities
December 11, 2008 – Bernard Madoff arrested, later put under house arrest
March 12, 2009 – Bernard Madoff confesses to $65 billion Ponzi scheme. Court verdict: Jail and faces maximum penalty of 150 years. Assets frozen and prosecutors eye wife’s assets as well.
January 7, 2009 – Satyam Chairman (now former) Ramalinga Raju self-confesses to Rs 7,800 crore scam
January 9, 2009 – Ramalinga Raju surrenders, arrested by Andhra Police (by the way, he had a date with Sebi next day)
March 14, 2009 – Newspaper reports suggest that Raju’s Madhapur den is being raided by CBI, implying there are a lot of loose ends still being tied up. And the fact that there are a number of agencies, including the Andhra police, CBI, Sebi and others investigating, things will not get any simpler.
Prima facie, two similar cases. Madoff ran a Ponzi scheme and conned investors. Raju conned investors who had bought his company’s shares by ‘cooking up a balance sheet’.
While the US government has already arrived at a number ($65 billion) for Madoff, we still have no idea about the money lost by investors in Raju’s case.  Perhaps, we will never know.
In Madoff’s instance, the case has been heard, the verdict given and is up for appeal. As for Raju, the buck is still passing around.
Newspaper reports suggest that Raju is living a raja’s life in his special cell. His brother Rama Raju is cooking food with help from (former CFO) Srinivas Vadlamani. Cooking accounts must have prepared them for this role anyway. They are even allowed limited quantities of cakes and biscuits (isn’t Raju diabetic?).
Meanwhile, his lawyers are busy telling the courts how the Rajus are suffering in jail, pestered by rats and bandicoots.
With several agencies waiting to charge him on different counts, all that Raju is likely to face is a lot of court hearings, as Sunny Deol famously said in Damini, ‘Tareeq pe tareeq’.
But the corrupt have never gone unpunished. After all, Sukh Ram was fined a princely Rs 2 lakh and sentenced to three years in jail… 13 years after the case was first reported.
Of course, it is a different matter altogether that many would not have even remembered why Sukh Ram was accused or fined. It is a tragedy that over the years, public amnesia has allowed many an issue to die a quiet death.
Raju too, will get his just desserts we hope… never mind if the dessert melts by then.

The irony of Harshad Mehta

February 26th, 2009 I met him once in mid-1998. Actually, I tagged along with my bureau chief B Krishnakumar (The Week).
In 1998, the stock market had again started misbehaving. In the first few months, it had shot up, only to crash within days. And some stocks, especially the ones whose promoters were advised by the big bull were doing exceptionally well.
We wanted to explore this line of investigation. On reaching his Maker Chamber office at 5 pm, we were made to wait for almost an hour – he was still being quizzed by CBI sleuths everyday.
My only memory about the office is that it had a rather glassy look about it, and there wasn’t a single sheet of paper, anywhere.
When Mehta came, he looked and sounded quite calm – a remarkable feat for someone, who was being grilled for six-eight hours a day. He told us about his new role as a corporate advisor (without naming the companies, of course) and offered us chai.
He also told us about the 24 criminal cases and over 300 civil cases against him. Later, I was told that he owed over Rs 11,000 crore to the tax authorities at one time.
After chatting with us till almost 7.30-8 pm, he offered to drop us back to our office. We travelled in his car. Was it the famous Lexus? I don’t remember, but it was quite an impressive one.
After he left, Krishna and me wondered about his source of income. (Remember, this was the time when his bank accounts had been frozen) But nothing suggested he was short of cash.
Three years later, Sebi banned Mehta from trading (yes, he had actually been given the trading licence back, even after the 1992 scam). Also, the three companies, whose shares were shored up by Mehta’s cartel, were banned from tapping the market for a few years.
Mehta died on 31 December, 2001.
A few weeks back (and 17 long years), when Mehta’s famous Worli house (Madhuli) attracted a mere Rs 20 crore, I was a bit surprised. His brother Ashwin urged the court to grant an extension as the price was too little for 8 flats.
After a week, there was another offer of slightly over Rs 32 crore – a whopping 60 per cent rise in just seven days. Despite this rise, the value was way below the going rate in the market.
For a man, who had spent most of his life shoring up share prices to unrealistic levels, the irony couldn’t be more obvious.

Courage under Satyam fire?

January 14th, 2009 So, Ramalinga Raju has high blood pressure, acute ulcers and even diabetes. Just a fortnight back, I was not aware of such intricate details about the (now ex) chairman’s health of India’s fourth largest IT company.
Isn’t it funny that no one seems to get such serious diseases while swindling over Rs 5,000 crore? Didn’t his blood pressure go up sharply every time he was fudging those numbers… how many zeros did he have to add every quarter and, if I have to believe his confession, for seven years, to ride a ‘non-existent’ tiger?
Over the years, we as journalists or citizens, have watched helplessly as politicians and white-collared criminals have `fallen ill’ or used other ways to evade the law.
Let’s take Raju’s case. On Thursday, market regulator Sebi summoned him at 5 pm. His lawyer appeared and said that he will appear on Friday at 4 pm because he was ill. On Thursday night, the man and his brother went and surrendered themselves to the Andhra police and were promptly arrested. Now Sebi cannot get access to him till January 16.
But there are other important questions.
Why haven’t his bank accounts been frozen? No one has any idea. Newspaper reports suggest that he has confessed to the authorities that he fudged the numbers. Then why can’t his accounts be frozen as a precautionary measure, so that Satyam’s shareholders and employees will not be left in the lurch? (Was he even paying the company’s contribution to the Employee Provident Fund for the 53,000 employees?)
Or will shareholders be simply have to be told that only invest in companies after doing proper research, look at the management’s past and stupid numbers like cash flows?
But even professional fund managers were fooled. Aren’t they supposed to have a whole lot of research data from so-called analysts, who are paid exorbitant salaries?
In fact during the month of December and I suspect, when the Maytas merger deal did not fructify, many fund managers bought Satyam shares because their ‘analysis’ said it was cheap and did not reflect the company’s fundamentals. Many brokerage houses also put a ‘buy’ call on the company.
So as investors, who do we trust? Fund managers cannot make the right call and brokerage houses are as clueless.
Does anyone suspect, why the small investor, is always scared about the stock market. Whether it is Harshad Mehta or Ketan Parekh or C R Bhansali or Raju… small investors suffer.
In some ways, it is good that the retail investors’ participation in the stock market is quite low. Our institutions are incapable of protecting them…There is ‘no courage under fire’.

Ratatouille Raju…

January 9th, 2009 Surely, he is a great chef. To have cooked a Rs 7,000 crore or $1.4 billion dish, he needed some special talents. Sadly, the 50,000 plus employees and lakhs of shareholders are not in a position to appreciate it.
What is scary is the lack of action on the part of our institutions.
In the US, two firms have already gone for a class suit action. In India, the central government is claiming that the Centre cannot ask the state to arrest Raju (as it is a state subject). And even now, the state has not filed any criminal charges.
Instead the state chief minister has urged that the good offices of N R Narayan Murthy (Infosys) and Azim Premji (Wipro) should be used to provide credibility to the company.
At present, market regulator Sebi is checking the books of both Satyam and audit company PriceWaterhouse.
Both the exchanges have said Satyam will be replaced by other companies from Monday, January 12. Compare that with NYSE, which banned trading on Wednesday itself.
What is worse is that according to the letter written by Raju, there was no one other than him and the managing director had any idea about this scam.
Someone please make me believe this one. The board members, CFO and others in the finance department, marketing heads… wasn’t anyone aware that the company revenues weren’t actually so or for that matter, their spread was a mere 3 per cent vis a vis the 30-plus per cent that the company claimed. Sounds preposterous…
And the last and the best one, where is Raju? – His lawyer claims he is in Hyderabad. Some others say he is in Dubai, yet others in London. Have any of the authorities met or spoken to him? – At least, no one is saying so. By now, in most countries, he would have been at least questioned by the authorities and put under some kind of house arrest.
While, we wait for investigations and committees to come to with their findings, for now, an important point to note is that that whether it is actual terrorism or financial terrorism, we are equally inept at handling both.
No wonder, whatever’s on the menu – guns and grenades or vanishing cash – in our country, the chef always gets away.

Goodbye, cruel 2008

December 29th, 2008

This year will most probably be remembered for all the bad things – terror attacks, job losses and fall of legendary institutions like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. In the last thirteen years in my professional career, I have not seen a worse year. While we all knew that the US sub-prime crisis would hit the financial markets sooner than later, none of us expected this mayhem. The initial crash in January was almost welcome. The Indian stock markets had almost risen to surreal levels and all that decoupling talk was really hard to digest. But post-June, when financial institutions started closing down or getting sold, the real fear began. Till then, it was a blip or in stock market parlance, a correction that was overdue. Things have really gone bad since then. Stories of job losses and salary cuts have become common now. The rate cuts and capital infusion by all the central bankers have really not helped. Of course, the effects will not be immediately seen. But banks are quite wary about lending. From indiscriminate lending to no lending, many banks have come a long way. And to round it off, after Delhi, Orissa and so many other cities… the Mumbai attacks. While critics have panned the media coverage by calling it elitist, I have a slightly different view. Though floods or earthquakes cause many more deaths, this was something completely different. The number or kind of people were not important. It was simply about the audacity of it all. While, we constantly hear about terrorists engaging in gun battles with the army in Jammu and Kashmir, we have never heard of a gun battle where terrorists fought the some 600-plus army and policemen for three full days in any of the major cities in India or perhaps, even world. As a Mumbaikar for my entire working life, I am sad to see the state of the hotels where I used to spend hours. And, of course, the aftermath. Now that Pakistan has conveniently shrugged off any responsibility, India faces the tough challenge of making things happen. As 2008 comes to an end, I pray that the next year is much better. Lesser terror attacks, fewer job losses and some turnaround in the stock market will definitely make me feel better. Guess, I am asking for too much… But what is making me really happy is that this year is almost over. Goodbye, cruel 2008 - Joydeep

    

Signals should be broken, especially by cabs with bombs

December 1st, 2008

Last Wednesday, I went to the Press Club located behind the Times of India building, which is quite usual. What was unusual was that I left it at exactly 10 p m; most days, I hang around till 11 or 12, sometimes later.
But on Wednesday, I was with Raghu Mohan (a scribe with Business World). And he has this unusual habit of leaving at exactly 10 often, even if the drink is half-finished.
As our regular cab driver sped towards Borivali, I received a message from a friend that brought the initial awareness. The message read…” Firing at 4 places in Mumbai. Pl don’t go out. Watch tv”. I was about to respond to him with a “safe and sound at SantaCruz” when there was a loud dull thud.
We could see was a lot of smoke in front of us, a burning tyre was rolling across the street and the fire was spreading with it. But there was no cab in front of us – it had just disappeared – maybe, into pieces. Phones had already started ringing. In-between taking calls, we made a few to friends and offices.
What has stayed etched in my mind is this incident: There was a Toyota Innova besides us and for reasons unknown to me, I told the driver (rather stupidly, perhaps) to put off the engine – some weird thought about electromagnetic waves. The driver just looked at me and rolled up the window.
Meanwhile, a large number of people had started running towards the taxi or whatever was left of it. We decided to walk to catch a train or auto or whatever. On our way, we saw a crumpled piece of metal on the roadside – it resembled a mudguard. Crowds had gathered in other places where either parts of the cab or its passengers had fallen.
We got an auto soon. When informed about the blast, the driver drove like a maniac – we almost had a few accidents and landed up a couple of kilometres away from our homes.
Finally, when I reached home, there were more calls and animated conversations about what happened or could have.
I went to town today (as Bombayites or Mumbaikars tend to call places beyond Dadar). I saw the dark patches and broken windows at the Taj and Oberoi. A few months back, I was at the Taj for the Business Standard Awards. Today, the building stood pleading helplessness.
I remembered Raghu’s call the morning after to inform that he is writing an article about our experience. He just happened to mention, “You know, that cabbie broke the signal while we stopped,”…